Semir Apparel (002563): Enjoy the industry feast

Semir Apparel 北京桑拿洗浴保健 (002563): Enjoy the industry feast

Company profile: Children’s wear casual wear leading apparel group company has two major brands of casual wear represented by Semir and children’s wear represented by Barabara. It is one of the few domestic apparel groups that has achieved leadership in two major areas.Revenue / performance compound growth rate was 16.

8% / 14.

3%.

18 years of children’s wear main business / casual wear revenue accounted for 54.

2% / 45.

8%.

In terms of different industries, the space for children’s clothing has been growing rapidly, and the layout is constantly optimizing. The retail sales of baby clothing in 18 years increased by about 2100 trillion.

2%, the market CR10 is 12.

9%, the concentration has increased significantly in the past three years; and after the local brand in the 上海夜网论坛 casual wear market undergoes in-depth adjustments, it is currently trying to usher in a break in the context of the new changes in the industry.

Consolidation of children’s clothing advantages: full accumulation of brand advantages, multi-category and multi-brand-driven growth company’s children’s clothing industry’s 10-year compound annual growth rate of 30 years.

8%, H1 revenue in 19 increased by 30.

0%, the market share of Barabara industry is the first (5.

6%).

At present, the children’s clothing business has formed a complete multi-brand matrix. Under the brand advantages accumulated in the early stage, the company’s channel bargaining power has been continuously improved.

At present, the category richness is accelerating and widening. Through the company’s integration of Kidliz design resources and supply chain, the company’s children’s clothing competition barriers continue to deepen.

Casual wear breaks: 18 years out of the trough, positioning adjustment has a imagination space company casual wear revenue growth of 10 years compound.

5%, after years of adjustment, it gradually came out of the trough last year, and H1 revenue in 19 increased by 12.

2%.

The new positioning of “Quality in Everyday” launched this year is in line with current consumer trends. It is expected that through the adjustment of existing stores, the promotion of multi-category expansion and the use of new media means will have room for imagination.

E-commerce continues to make breakthroughs: Transformation of the content operation platform is expected to consolidate the growth of the company’s e-commerce business through 8 years of development. It is now the main channel for growth. The proportion of 19H revenue has exceeded 25%.Strengthen the connection with consumers, fully explore changes in demand, rely on internal brand strength to expand categories or launch new online brands to further open up growth space.

Risks suggest that children’s wear is subject to fierce competition, the company’s integration of its business in the realm of fragility is large, and casual wear is not up to expectations.

Investment suggestion: The competition barrier for children’s clothing is deepened, and the positioning of casual wear has imagination space. Considering the active adjustment of the company’s various businesses, the EPS for 19-21 is raised to 0.

71/0.

82/0.

99 yuan, corresponding to PE17 / 15 / 12X.

As a leading apparel group in the two major industries of children’s wear and casual wear, the company’s current competition for children’s wear continues to deepen, and the positioning of casual wear brands has room for imagination.

Comprehensive absolute and relative estimates (using segment estimates, giving children’s clothing / leisure clothing a weight of 0).

62/0.

38), give the company a reasonable one-year estimate interval 14.

4-16.

5 yuan / share, compared with 22 at present.

1% -39.

6% upside, maintaining “buy”.