Desai Battery (000049): slightly better than expected mobile phone, AIOT, new energy vehicles steadily improve
Estimated earnings growth of 17 per year.
6% Desay Battery 杭州夜网论坛 announced its 2019 performance forecast: revenue of about 184.
50,000 yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.
0%, net profit attributable to mother 4.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 17 in ten years.
6%, slightly more than our Air Force 4.
700 million expected.
Corresponding to 4Q19 single quarter: revenue is about 59.
1 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.
3%, net profit attributable to mother 1.
81 ppm, a 10-year increase3.
Under the dull background of the mobile phone market in 2019, the company has achieved 1) increase in Huawei mobile phone distribution; 2) Apple, Huawei wearable device penetration; 3) NB, power tools and other medium-sized batteries, and still maintained revenue growth.
The profit recovery performance in 2019 mainly comes from: 1) Huizhou Xinyuan, a new energy vehicle sun company, has substantially reduced its losses, which has a positive impact on net profit attributable to its mothers of more than 30 million yuan; 2) foreign currency asset optimization, from exchange losses to exchange gainsIt also brings about 30 million profit increases.
Focus on the volume and price of mobile phone batteries.
1) Desai is one of the core suppliers of Apple’s iPhone battery. We expect that the 1H20 cheap iPhone will start to be stocked soon, which is expected to bring off-season in the first half of the year.Promotion.
2) On the Android side, with the blessing of 5G, we expect that Android phone expansion will also grow significantly. The increase in battery capacity of 5G phones and the increase in Desai expansion will also bring additional growth.
AIoT category grows fast.
In addition to mobile phone batteries, we expect that Desai will benefit from the high investment of Apple AirPods Pro. This year, Apple Watch will be remodeled, and Huawei ‘s tablet, laptop, headset, and base station energy storage will be added.
In the long run, we believe that under the trend of AIoT terminal innovation, batteries will also find more applications.
The new energy vehicle business will usher in losses this year.
The company’s new energy vehicle business mainly comes from Sun Company Huizhou Xinyuan. In the past few years, it has gradually reduced losses through business and customer concentration. At present, it mainly supplies power battery BMS for Volkswagen and other companies. We expect the market for new energy vehicles to improve and BMS to make steady progress.Volume, this year will achieve a loss.
Estimates and suggestions to consider new energy vehicles to turn losses, increase 2019 / 20e EPS 4% / 4% to 2.
82 yuan, date 2021e EPS 3.
Currently it can correspond to 2020 / 21e 15.
4x P / E.
We maintain our Outperform rating and consider a recovery in downstream demand. We raise our target price by 12% to 56.
00 yuan, corresponding to 2020 / 21e 19.
The price-earnings ratio is 4 times, compared with the current 33% upside. Risks Demand for new energy vehicles is picking up less than expected; 5G handset bookings are less than expected.